Should You Buy or Rent? Find Your Break-Even Year.
Housing costs are unusually high relative to your savings. The model will likely be wrong in these extreme scenarios.
Exit Year5
SELL AT YEAR 5Exit Strategy Analysis
drag the line on chart · or use scrubber below
🏠 Buy & Sell (after-tax)
Sale Price—
Selling Costs—
Loan Payoff—
Cap Gains Tax (buy)—
Gross Proceeds
(after-tax)—
Down Payment (out)—
Mortgage paid (P+I)—
Interest paid (cost in P&L)—
Tax + Maintenance—
Tax Deduction Savings—
Net P&L (buy)—
Annualised ROI (buy)—
📈 Rent & Invest S&P (after-tax)
Down Payment → S&P—
Monthly Savings → S&P—
Total Rent Paid—
S&P Portfolio (pre-tax)—
Cap Gains Tax (S&P)—
Net P&L (rent)—
⚖️ Head-to-Head (after-tax)
Buy proceeds—
S&P portfolio—
Convert ending wealth—
Buy net P&L—
Rent net P&L—
Convert net P&L—
Best advantage—
Break-even year—
Mortgage interest deduction—
Prop tax deduction—
Cap gains exclusion used—
🏠→📋 Buy then Rent Out (beta)
Convert at year—
Sale Price—
Selling Costs—
Loan Payoff—
Cap Gains Tax—
Gross Proceeds—
Rental → S&P—
Ending wealth (Y—)—
Down Payment (out)—
Mortgage paid (P+I)—
Interest paid—
Tax + Maintenance—
Rental income—
Rent elsewhere—
Tax Deduction Savings—
Net P&L (convert)—
At year — — buy vs rent advantage (after-tax)
—
——
The real question isn't just "can I afford it?" — it's whether buying a home beats renting and investing
the difference in the stock market. Our interactive calculator shows you the exact year buying wins, how much home equity you build, how much
total interest you pay, and what your down payment would be worth in the S&P 500 instead. All figures
are after-tax — including mortgage interest deductions,
property tax deductions, primary residence capital gains exclusion, and capital gains tax on S&P
portfolio gains. Buy advantage is ending wealth: buy cash (gross proceeds) minus rent portfolio (S&P after tax). Net P&L (buy) uses only true costs: down, interest (see "Interest paid (cost in P&L)" — principal is already in gross proceeds), tax, and maintenance.
Guide
How to Use This Calculator
This tool models the full
after-tax financial picture of buying a home versus renting and investing — not just your monthly payment.
01
Enter your home price & mortgage details
Set the home price, down payment, mortgage rate, and loan term. Defaults to a 30-year fixed at 7% —
adjust to match current rates or quotes you've received.
02
Set your rent & investment assumptions
Enter what you'd pay in rent for a comparable home. The calculator invests your down payment and any
monthly savings from renting into the S&P 500 at your chosen return rate.
03
Configure your tax situation
Set your marginal tax rate, filing status, whether you itemize deductions, and your long-term capital
gains rate. These materially affect both sides of the comparison — deductions benefit buyers, capital
gains tax hits the rent scenario at exit.
04
Drag the exit line to your target year
On the Exit Strategy tab, drag the white dashed line to the year you'd plan to sell. The panel below
instantly shows after-tax proceeds, S&P portfolio value, net P&L for both scenarios, and which one wins at
that exact moment.
Key Insights
What the Numbers Actually Mean
The Front-Loading Problem
In the early years of a mortgage, the vast majority of your payment goes to interest, not
equity. On a $450,000 loan at 7%, your first monthly payment of ~$2,994 includes roughly $2,625
in interest and only $369 in principal. You're not building equity fast — you're paying the bank.
This is why buying and selling in 2-3 years is often a financial loss even if the home appreciated.
Selling costs (typically 5-7%) can wipe out the thin equity you've built.
The Opportunity Cost of Your Down Payment
A 20% down payment on a $450,000 home is $90,000 that could have been invested. At the S&P 500's
historical ~10.5% annual return, that $90,000 becomes roughly $250,000 in 10 years. But at
exit, that S&P gain is subject to long-term capital gains tax — which this calculator accounts for, unlike
most others.
This is the hidden cost of buying that most calculators ignore completely.
The Mortgage Interest Deduction: Less Valuable Than You Think
After the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act nearly doubled the standard deduction, fewer than 10% of
taxpayers now itemize. If you take the standard deduction, the mortgage interest deduction has
zero value to you. Our calculator defaults to no itemizing — toggle it on only if your total deductions
genuinely exceed the standard deduction threshold.
When you do itemize, only the marginal benefit above the standard deduction counts — not the full
deduction amount.
The $250K/$500K Capital Gains Exclusion Is a Real Advantage
One of the most powerful tax benefits of homeownership: when you sell your primary residence, up
to $250,000 in capital gains is tax-free (single) or $500,000 (married filing jointly),
provided you've lived there for 2 of the last 5 years. For most people in most markets, this means paying
zero capital gains tax on sale — a huge advantage over the taxable S&P gains in the rent scenario.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
Everything
you need to know about the rent vs buy decision and how this calculator works.
How long do you need to stay in a home before buying makes financial sense?
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The break-even point typically ranges from 4 to 10 years depending on your local market, mortgage rate,
appreciation, and rent vs ownership cost. In high-cost cities with low appreciation it can take 7-10
years. In appreciating markets with competitive rates it can be as short as 3-4 years. Use the exit
strategy simulator above to find your exact after-tax break-even year.
Does the mortgage interest deduction still matter?
+
For most people, no. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act raised the standard deduction to $14,600 (single) and
$29,200 (married) in 2024. Unless your total itemized deductions — mortgage interest + property taxes
(capped at $10,000 SALT) + charitable giving + other — exceed that threshold, you get no benefit from the
mortgage interest deduction. Only about 10% of Americans currently itemize. If you do itemize, only the
amount above the standard deduction threshold represents actual tax savings.
How does the primary residence capital gains exclusion work?
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If you've owned and lived in your home as your primary residence for at least 2 of the last 5 years, you
can exclude up to $250,000 (single) or $500,000 (married filing jointly) of capital gains from federal
income tax when you sell. This is one of the most significant tax advantages of homeownership. Our
calculator applies this exclusion automatically at exit — any gain below the threshold is tax-free, and
any gain above it is taxed at your long-term capital gains rate.
Is buying a home always better than renting?
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No. If you invest your down payment in the S&P 500 and account for taxes on both sides, renting can
outperform buying financially in the short to medium term — especially when mortgage rates are high, home
appreciation is slow, or rent is significantly cheaper than owning. Buying typically wins over the long
term (10+ years) due to forced savings, leverage, and the capital gains exclusion.
How is S&P 500 capital gains tax calculated in the rent scenario?
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In the rent scenario, when you "exit" (i.e., liquidate your S&P portfolio to compare apples-to-apples
with the home sale), we calculate the total portfolio gain (portfolio value minus your total contributions
— down payment plus monthly savings invested). That gain is subject to long-term capital gains tax at your
chosen rate (0%, 15%, or 20% federally, depending on income). This is a real cost the rent scenario faces
that most calculators ignore.
What costs are included in the true cost of buying a home?
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The true cost of homeownership includes: your down payment, all monthly mortgage payments (principal +
interest), property taxes (typically 1-2% annually), maintenance and repairs (typically 1% annually), and
selling costs when you exit (agent commissions + closing costs, typically 5-7% of sale price). Our
calculator accounts for all of these, plus tax deductions if you itemize, and applies the capital gains
exclusion at sale.
How accurate is this calculator?
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This calculator uses standard mortgage amortization formulas, compound growth models, and US federal tax
rules. Results are financially accurate given the inputs provided but are projections based on assumed
constant rates. It does not account for state income taxes, AMT, HOA fees, inflation adjustments, or the
SALT deduction cap interplay in detail. It is a planning and comparison tool, not tax or financial advice.
Consult a CPA or financial advisor for your specific situation.